It's like the world's gone mad and no mistake, by Jeremy Grant
/If you are bewildered by world events and wonder how this can possibly be so with January not even over, you are assuredly not alone.
The United States invades Venezuela and captures its president. Greenland is sucked into “the Donroe Doctrine”. Conflict rages in Ukraine and Sudan. Closer to home, a Russia-flagged oil tanker is seized by the US in waters between Iceland and Scotland.
The politicisation of economic and financial policy proceeds apace. Exhibit A: the opening of a criminal investigation into Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell by the US justice department over a renovation of the Fed’s headquarters in Washington.
Meanwhile, gold (and silver) prices, as well as the FTSE, keep hitting record highs. And questions persist about whether there is an AI market bubble.
How to make sense of it all? At times like this – actually, there has never been a time like this, let’s face it – what’s needed is a forum for measured, informed debate that tries to make sense of our increasingly Hobbesian world.
Luckily, the brainiacs behind The Library of Mistakes have created just such a thing in the form of a weekend retreat in the bookish town of Hay-on-Wye, on the Herefordshire-Wales border. It’s called the “Weekend of Mistakes”.
First, The Library of Mistakes. This is a financial history library tucked away down a cobbled street in Edinburgh’s New Town. It was founded in 2014 by former Baillie Gifford investor Russell Napier, convinced that if we knew more about the financial mistakes of the past, we might avoid repeats.
In 2023, Napier and a friend from shared financial days, Paul Greatbatch, cooked up a plan to create an annual discussion forum for current economic and political questions and their impact on financial markets — and vice versa. “A Glastonbury for financial historians,” as Napier puts it.
They landed on Hay-on-Wye, in part thanks to Greatbatch and his wife’s involvement in the restoration of medieval-era Hay Castle, where the Weekend of Mistakes happens every March.
Having attended last year, I can report that it’s an intellectually stimulating gathering of the curious and opinionated. A key ingredient – probably the key ingredient - is the natural mingling between audience and speakers, right through to the casual dinner that rounds off the Saturday.
“We take lessons from the past that might illuminate the current worlds of economics, politics, society and investment, and how they are interconnected,” explains Greatbatch. “And most important in the mix, all this is done in a beautiful setting and in an atmosphere that’s friendly, collegiate and fun.”
This year’s programme includes a session examining Japan as an investment opportunity, another on whether Gen Z will renege on boomers’ pensions policies, and one that asks simply: “Can Britain Get Its Mojo Back?”
Speakers include Mona Siddiqi, professor of religion and society at Kings College, London, Anat R. Admati, George G.C. Parker professor of finance and economics at Stanford University’s graduate school of business, Jesse Norman, MP, and Financial Times columnist Katie Martin.
Merryn Somerset Webb, Bloomberg columnist and podcaster and regular participant, has one simple measure for the quality of proceedings: it has “the best audience questions at any event I ever do”.