Agentic AI provides big opportunity to grow Scotland’s GDP, guest blog by Martin Boyle, VP of Transformation at CodeBase

Even if you aren’t an economist, you know the term GDP. It is the benchmark of our national success. Politicians of all persuasions promise that growth will deliver everything we need - higher standards of living, better-funded public services and more jobs. It is the horizon we are all told to chase.

They are also certain that this vision of mercurial economic growth will only be achieved if we embrace the opportunities of Artificial Intelligence (AI). AI is no longer a tech trend - it is the primary engine that will finally move the needle on Scotland’s productivity.

The Tony Blair Institute for Global Change (TBI) is leading the charge. In 2025, it argued that AI is the key to reversing the UK's long-term trend of weak growth, with the potential to add around 10% to 16% to cumulative GDP growth by the mid-2040s. TBI suggests AI could increase annual GDP growth by as much as a full percentage point through the 2030s.

So, what does that actually mean? It is hard to see how getting AI tools like CoPilot or Gemini to write better emails or pithy social media posts is going to deliver exponential gains. If AI is only a digital person assistant, the national impact will remain negligible.

With Scotland’s GDP growth currently forecast to hover around 1% to 1.3% through to 2027, we must move beyond AI automation - AI doing the same things slightly faster. To move the dial on national GDP, we need to embrace AI with agency. Enter stage left, Agentic AI.

Traditional AI automation is like a digital filing clerk. It follows rigid instructions. In contrast, Agentic AI acts like a virtual general manager. It doesn't just draft the email, it analyses the supply chain disruption caused by snow in the Highlands, reasons through the logistical alternatives, negotiates with vendors, and executes a solution. This is a digital employee.

Agentic AI is an opportunity for Scotland’s economy. While global tech hubs are racing to build the biggest models, the real economic growth prize lies in architecting how these models act within our core industries - they’re applicable from FinTech in Edinburgh to Renewable Energy in Aberdeen and Space tech in Prestwick.

The barrier to the TBI predicted annual GDP boost isn't the technology, it’s the skills bottleneck. Scotland has approximately 65,000 software developers - most have been trained to build systems that wait for human commands. To unlock AI Agency, we need to upskill our senior talent to build systems that can reason and plan.

If Scotland remains a consumer of other nations’ Agentic AI solutions, we will see only marginal gains. But if we empower our seasoned developers to become Agentic Architects, we aren't just improving personal productivity - we could re-engineer significant elements of our economy.

When Scotland masters Agentic AI, it can transform from a participant in the AI revolution into its engine room, ensuring that the promises of GDP growth can become a tangible reality.